Tradelands – April Updates, Mining Frustrates

The Roblox game Tradelands performed a string of updates in April that have modernized the graphics while also applying some updated game functionality.  One of the changes is to sync weather across all servers while also making storms last longer.  Today, I am going to break this down statistically and attempt to determine if the recent updates have changed the profitability of mining.

For the uninitiated, Tradelands has a resource gathering system.  It’s an important part of the player economy.  One of the main factors that impact your mining output is storms.  As a result, there are numerous player groups that track storms and report on them.  The recent updates directly change the way storms spawn. As a result, it has potentially changed the economic output of many grinders, including myself.

For the first few weeks of play, I “felt” that the change to storms was impacting my general resource collection.  But do the statistics support this feeling?

Data Collection

I chose to use this set of criteria to limit noisy data due to limited sizing.  Here are the factors to my decision:

  • Data will not reflect runs made during actual storms. This analysis will be in a future update.
  • Only pickaxes made from Emerald, Ruby, and Amethyst will be included.
  • Data set only includes pickaxes which were fully used during the same weather session. (no half day, half night combos, etc.)
  • Mining all takes place on the same island so no mixed probabilities due to locations. Also, no alts were used for obvious reasons.
  • Resource counts were always between 0 and 700.

Prior to the April updates, I was able to track and record 122 mining runs which are included in this analysis.  For comparison, I only have 12 mining runs post release included in this analysis.  As such, there is significant sample size variance.  With that in mind, here is the results:

Drop Percentages During Regular (Clear) Weather:

Avg  Per Run
Iron % Copper %
Silver %
Gold %
Coal %
Saltpeter %
Emerald %
Ruby %
Amethyst %
Sapphire %
Onyx %
Esteel %
Release Pre-April 151 68.01% 10.26% 4.80% 2.29% 0.00% 5.13% 3.82% 1.75% 1.42% 1.09% 1.42% 0.00%
Post-April 145 62.48% 9.74% 3.41% 3.41% 0.00% 8.77% 4.63% 1.46% 2.44% 0.73% 2.92% 0.00%
Estimates Running Avg. 144.75 65.40% 10.02% 4.15% 2.82% 0.00% 6.85% 4.20% 1.61% 1.90% 0.92% 2.13% 0.00%
Est. Actuals 145 66% 10% 4% 2.00% 0% 7% 4% 2.00% 2% 1% 2% 0%
Payout Is: GOOD 160.87 67.90% 12.07% 5.34% 3.58% 0.00% 7.99% 5.25% 2.35% 2.63% 1.50% 2.90% 0.00%
BAD 128.62 62.90% 7.96% 2.95% 2.06% 0.00% 5.71% 3.15% 0.87% 1.17% 0.34% 1.36% 0.00%

Analysis of Results

This table shows my mining results before and after the release.  The first thing that stands out is the fact that the only major change in probabilities is with iron and saltpeter.  If you were using a gem pick to get saltpeter or iron, you were doing something wrong.  So, in other words, the results were the same.

Surprisingly, Onyx has a 1.5% increase in drop percentage, and this may actually be higher if I actually focused on it.  I have noticed the rocks in Freeport regularly produce 5 – 7 per run when I don’t focus on only them (i.e. I mine every rock there, not just the famous two).

All of my runs still regularly bring in an average of 15 gems per run, and are within the expected tolerances.  I’ve had a few runs where I have broken even (7 – 8 gems collected) but the majority end up in the range of 14 to 16.  Again, it appears nothing has changed.

In the data set above, I also included my proposed averages (to my knowledge the developer doesn’t share the actuals for me to compare).  This is where I believe the mining rates are at present and plan to compare them to my results going forward.  If this is correct, it means Sapphire is the rarest gem in the game, even more rare than e-steel.

Lastly, I removed rain, e-storms, and the new Glitch Storm from my totals.  The reason is I don’t have enough data on them to determine if there is a change, but so far it seems to match my results, except for the Glitch Storm.  E-storms seem to have changed the payout for e-steel, requiring more Sapphire to obtain.

One last thing. If you actually play Tradelands, you are probably asking “Wait, what this Glitch Storm you mentioned?”  This is a new weather bug the developer has introduced in the April release.  When a storm appears to flash on screen for a few seconds then disappear, the payout percentages for all gems appears to double from their regular storm output. The community at large hasn’t discovered yet, but I am able to collect 30 gems per Glitch Storm so it is only a matter of time before it is patched or someone finds it.

Concluding Thoughts

It looks like the new update has minimal impact to the mining community on Tradelands, with two notable exceptions.  First, the Glitch Storm is fantastic for mining if you are aware of it.  Second, the fact that E-storms are synced means fewer occurrences but they occur for longer durations.  A lot of your luck will depend on you being online at the right time.

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